THE GRIDIRON WIRE · NFL · COLLEGE · MLB

What changed—and why it matters

Original, source-linked briefs built around confirmed availability, depth-chart, coaching, weather and market information. News is context for the model—not a manufactured pick.

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Slate

Season

Week

Simulations

Positions

Projected players — click a card to flip it and open the full detail

Hit rates — starting with his own average

Player

Stat

Opponent

Extra lines

Seasons

Pushes are excluded from every denominator and counted separately. A hit rate against the player's own average is a description of the games he has already played — it is not a forecast.

Pick a player. The first thing you will see is how often he actually clears his own average — most people assume 50%, and for most stats it is not.

League-wide hit-rate board

Season

Position

Stat

Min games

Stats versus each opponent, by week

Player

Headline stat

Seasons

Click any opponent row to open the individual games behind it.

Pick a player to see every opponent he has faced, the week, and what he did.

Against the spread — 2023 to 2025

Team

Situation

Seasons

Weight 2025

2024

2023

Weights are normalised over the seasons a team actually played, and the exact weighting that produced every number is printed above the table.

Pick a team, or leave it on all 32.

Head to head

Away

Home

Simulations

The projected score is a forward-looking simulation. Historical head-to-head scores remain below it as context only. σ (sigma) shows the normal game-to-game uncertainty around a projection.

Advanced metrics — the reference

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Compute a metric

Metric

Player

Team

Line

Odds

Season finish probabilities

Season

Position

Simulated seasons

A probability of finishing top-12 is an honest answer; a single predicted rank is not. Percentages come out of the simulated seasons, so they move with the number of simulations you run.

Run the simulation to see who finishes where.

Full-year projections, draft board and season lineup

Season

Format

League size

Scoring

Simulations

Build the full-year starting lineup — this is season-long, not one week.

Season projections — every player

Strength of schedule

Team

Position

Current spreads & totals

Sport

Season

Week

Every row leads with its freshness badge — CURRENT, STALE, WAREHOUSE or NO LINE — plus the source it came from and how old it is. One season-wide fetch serves every week, so a CURRENT line served off the local snapshot is normal; STALE means the live fetch failed and the number may have moved.

Load the lines for a slate.

Trader scanner — read only

Sport

Max average entry price

Min hit rate

Min trades

Active since

Limit

Max average entry price is the filter that matters: a 97% hit rate built on 0.99 favourites is worth nothing. Keep it at or below 0.75 to find people taking real risk. GRIDIRON only reads Polymarket — it cannot place, sign or settle anything.

Set your filters and scan.

Optimal lineup

Format

Objective

Run a simulation first

NFL teams and players

Find a team

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All supported players and positions

Find a player

Position

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Pick a player, opponent, line and price

Auto prop board — biggest edges on this slate

Stat

Lines are model-generated, not sportsbook lines — treat them as a shortlist, then price the real number above.

Offensive coordinator tendencies

Season

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What changed—and why it matters

Projected players — click a card to flip it and open the full detail

College Football

How to read the stats